张晓波教授谈JPE2011创作心得 Xiaobo Zhang on JPE (2011)
本文最初于 2021 年 6 月 24 日 发布于微信公众号 Impactful Research；2026 年 4 月 28 日 同步至本网站。
Originally published on the WeChat official account Impactful Research on 2021-06-24; mirrored to this website on 2026-04-28.
来源：网易新闻
作为这个公众号的第一篇文章，我们很荣幸邀请到北京大学的张晓波教授分享他和魏尚进教授合著的性别比对中国储蓄率影响的文章（The competitive saving motive: Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China）的创作历程。这篇文章发表在2011年的政治经济学杂志(Journal of Political Economy), 截止今日在google scholar的引用数已接近1000次，成为研究中国经济方面非常重要的一篇文献。
在这之后，张晓波教授又在 Journal of Development Economics 、 Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization、《经济研究》等期刊上发表了一系列关于性别比的文章，考察了性别比失衡对企业家精神、房价、工伤（及死亡）及精神健康等的影响 (Chang and Zhang 2015; Wei et al. 2017; Tan et al. 2021；谭之博、张晓波, 2016)，揭示了婚姻市场的内卷现象。
利用台湾政府对当年战争失败后撤退到台湾的军人实行的军婚禁令作为自然实验，Chang and Zhang (2015) 发现1959年军婚禁令的解除使得性别比高的地方的男性面临的婚姻市场竞争更大，从而更有可能为了提高竞争力而成为企业家。
除此之外，Wei, Zhang and Liu (2017) 也探索了性别比对房价的影响：作者发现，在性别比失衡更严重的地区，有未婚男性的家庭会为了将来儿子在婚姻市场上更有竞争力而投资房产，从而拉高了当地房价。
Tan, Wei and Zhang (2021) 最新的研究发现在性别比失衡更严重的地区，适婚男性的父母群体遭受工作场所相关的意外伤害和死亡的发生率更高。这主要是因为在这些地区为了提高适婚年龄儿子的竞争力，适婚男性的父母会更努力工作，更愿意寻求高收入但是更危险的工作，从而雇主会减少对工作场所安全的投资，进一步增加了工伤和死亡的概率。
谭之博、张晓波（2016）发现在性别失衡严重的地区，独生男孩子在进入成年之后出现精神问题的比例也更高。原来在家时，男孩子是小皇上。但考上大学或走入社会后，各种竞争（包括婚姻市场的竞争）突然加大。面临内卷，没有躺平和竞争心态的话，出现精神问题也就不奇怪了。
以下是张晓波教授分享的关于The competitive saving motive: Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China (JPE 2011) 这篇文章的创作历程。
Q: 您是怎样发现这一研究问题的？
Q: How did you identify this research question?
A: 2008年，在波士顿举行的NBER中国经济工作组会议上，工作组主任魏尚进教授邀请我讨论Marcos Chamon和Eswar Prasad的论文“Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?”。魏老师当时在国际货币基金组织工作，那里离我在IFPRI的办公室只有几个街区。在他把论文交给我之后，我们在华盛顿的一家餐厅共进午餐，讨论了这篇文章。这篇论文关注了一个很好的问题：为什么城市居民储蓄率如此之高，而且持续在上升？作者认为，预防动机和财务约束是两个关键因素。然而问题在于，尽管自2003年以来，中国的养老体系和公共医疗服务都在改善，但同期家庭储蓄占可支配收入的比例仍继续大幅上升。这个时间序列趋势与预防动机理论相矛盾。如今的金融体系很可能比几年前更有效率，但储蓄率仍在上升，所以一定有其他原因在起作用。
A : In 2008, as the director of NBER Chinese Economy group, Prof. Wei asked me to discuss the following paper “Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?” by Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad in the NBER Chinese economy group meeting in Boston. At the time, Prof. Wei worked at IMF, which was only a few blocks away from my office at IFPRI. After he assigned me the paper, we discussed it over lunch in a DC restaurant. The paper asked a very good question: why is the urban household savings rate so high and still going up? The authors argue that precautionary motive and financial constraints are two key factors. However, the problem is that while both pension systems and the public provision of health care in China have been improving since 2003, household savings as a share of disposable income continued to rise sharply during the same period. This time series pattern contradicts the precautionary motive theory. The financial system is most likely more efficient today than a few years ago yet the savings rate still rose. So there must be something else at play.
A : 当时，我在贵州省做入户调查。在实地考察中，我看到即使在偏远地区，穷人也为儿子的婚姻建造了很大的新房。这从经济决策角度说不通。建新房的目的主要是为了显示自己的财富地位。为了建一个新家，他们不得不拼命工作、攒钱。我们进行了头脑风暴，儿子结婚的动机与不断加剧的性别比失衡可能是被忽视的解释因素。首先，从全国层面来看，家庭储蓄率和18年前出生时的性别比之间存在很强的协同性。接下来，我们发现这种关系在省份层面仍然是存在的。因此，我们决定写一篇论文，从竞争性储蓄动机的角度来解释中国不断上升的家庭储蓄率。
A : At the time, I was conducting household surveys in Guizhou Province. During the field visits, I witnessed that even in remote areas poor people built big new homes for their sons’ marriage. This doesn’t make economic sense. The purpose of building a new home is to mainly show their wealth status. In order to build a new home, they had to work extremely hard and saved money. We brainstormed that the motive for sons’ marriage in combination of increasing sex ratio imbalance might be a neglected explanatory factor. First we checked that there is a strong co-movement between household savings rate and sex ratio at birth 18 years ago at the national level. Next we found that the relationship still holds across provinces. So we decided to write up a paper to explain China’s rising household savings rate from the perspective of competitive savings motive.
Q: 从您的角度看，这篇文章具有如此重大影响力的主要原因是什么？
Q: From your perspective, what are the main reasons that make this paper a high impact research?
A : 一个好的研究问题非常重要。中国的高储蓄率吸引了全球的关注。在中国和其他一些亚洲国家，性别比例失衡已成为一个大问题，人们想知道性别比例失衡的经济和社会后果，这个研究问题可能会引起广大读者的兴趣。对这个谜题的新颖解释也很重要。从核心逻辑上讲，竞争性储蓄动机与达尔文的性选择理论有关（生物上的一种性别的成员选择另一种性别的配偶，并与同性成员竞争获得异性成员的机会）。在经济学文献中，交配竞争的生物学动力在很大程度上被忽略了。我们的假说可能会促使人们更多地思考经济现象的生物学解释。
A : A good research question is very important. China’s high savings rate attracted global attention. Sex imbalances emerged as a big problem in China and some other Asian countries. People wanted to know about the economic and social consequences of sex ratio imbalances. The research question is probably of interest to a wide range of readers. A novel explanation to the puzzle also matters. In the spirit, the competitive savings motive is related to Darwinian sexual selection theory (members of one biological sex choose mates of the other sex to mate with, and compete with members of the same sex for access to members of the opposite sex). The biological force of mating competition has been largely ignored in the economics literature. Our hypothesis probably induces people to think more about the biological explanations to economic phenomena.
Q: 在这篇文章写作与修改过程中最大的挑战是什么？
Q: What was the greatest challenge during the writing and revision of the paper?
A : 这篇文章很快就完成了，发表过程也非常顺利。对于这篇文章，我们没有遇到很大的挑战。我得说这篇文章的发表中运气起到了重要的作用。然而，对于其他相关的论文，我们没有这么好的运气。比如，最近这篇研究工作场所安全的JDE论文的第一版草稿是在2013年初完成的，这篇论文的发表花了8年的时间。我们现在仍然在修改早年一篇研究企业精神的NBER工作论文（Wei and Zhang, 2011b）。所以耐心和坚持对做研究来说是必要的。
A : The paper was finished very fast. The publication process was also very smooth. For this paper, we didn’t encounter major challenges. I’d say luck plays an important role for the publication of this paper. However, for other related papers, we didn’t have such good luck. For example, the first draft of the recent JDE paper on workplace safety was finished in the early 2013. It took us eight years to get the paper published. We are still revising an early NBER working paper on entrepreneurship (Wei and Zhang, 2011b). So patience and persistence are essential for doing research.
Q: 您对于青年学者创作有影响力的高质量研究有什么建议？
Q: Do you have any advice for junior scholars on how to produce impactful high quality research?
A : 这个很难回答。事前我自己也没有预料这篇文章会产生比较大的影响。有的文章自己觉得很好，但最后却没有什么影响。非要说建议的话，我觉着坚持做自己感兴趣的研究，享受研究的过程可能最重要。最后结果不要想太多。另外多注意观察身边的经济现象，读一些经济学之外的文章书籍也有助于发现新的研究问题和开拓思路。最后实证研究现在很难一个人来做，找到志同道合的合作者一起探讨也非常重要。这些年我从魏尚进老师和其他合作者身上都学到很多。
A : It’s difficult to answer. I didn’t expect this paper to have a big impact beforehand. Some papers that I like ultimately have limited impact. If I have to make suggestions, I feel that the most important is to do research that follows your interests, enjoy the research process, and do not think too much about the final result. Besides, be a good observer to the ongoing economic phenomena. Reading articles and books other than economics also helps to discover new research questions and expand way of thinking. For empirical research, working with co-authors is also very important. I have learned tremendously from Prof. Wei and other co-authors over the years.
学者简介：张晓波，北京大学国家发展研究院讲席教授、北京大学企业大数据中心主任、康奈尔大学应用经济与管理学博士、国际SSCI期刊 China Economic Review 主编，主要研究领域为发展经济学和中国经济。
在 Journal of Political Economy 、 Proceedings of National Academy of Science 、 Journal of Development Economics 、 Journal of International Economics 、 Journal of Public Economics 等权威英文期刊和《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等国内权威期刊发表论文数十篇；出版《中国产业集群的演化与发展》、《中国区域创新创业报告》、 Oxford Companion to the Economics of China 、 Narratives of Chinese Economic Reforms: How Does China Cross the River? 、 Regional Inequality in China: Trends, Explanations and Policy Responses 、 Governing Rapid Growth in China: Equity and Institutions 等学术专著多部（含合著）。在国际知名经济学家网站（IDEAS）排在世界所有经济学家的前5%。获孙冶方经济学奖和张培刚发展经济学奖。
参考文献：
Chang, S. and Zhang, X., 2015. Mating competition and entrepreneurship. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 116, pp.292-309.
Tan, Z., Wei, S.J. and Zhang, X., 2021. Deadly discrimination: Implications of “missing girls” for workplace safety. Journal of Development Economics, p.102678.
Wei, S.J. and Zhang, X., 2011a. The competitive saving motive: Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China. Journal of Political Economy, 119(3), pp.511-564.
Wei, S.J. and Zhang, X., 2011b. Sex ratios, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (No. w16800). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Wei, S.J., Zhang, X. and Liu, Y., 2017. Home ownership as status competition: Some theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 127, pp.169-186.
谭之博、张晓波, 2016. “独生子女政策的精神健康成本：基于倍差法估计,”《经济研究》，第2期：168-180。
| 责任编辑 | 秦雨、韩亚婕、战昶威 |
| 校对 | 张晓波 |